Both candidates hold sizeable leads among their core voting groups, including gaining overwhelming endorsement among their own party supporters – 98% of NDC supporters are voting for Mahama, 89% of NPP supporters indicated they are voting for Bawumia.
Former President John Dramani Mahama of the NDC holds a significant lead over Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia of the NPP in the final days of the 2024 election campaign season. UPDI Africa conducted an independent pre-election poll of 2,889 likely voters, from November 24 to November 26 across the sixteen regions of Ghana.
Poll Findings
The poll results show 52% of voters who lean towards the NDC and its candidate J.D. Mahama, while 46% of voters lean towards the NPP and its candidate M. Bawumia in the upcoming 7th December 2024 elections. The smaller party and independent candidates, undecided voters and rejected ballots made up the remaining 2%. The polls reflect the continued dominance of the NDC and NPP in Ghanaian elections over the last 32 years.
The survey finds indications that turnout among NDC voters and apathy within the ranks of the NPP may determine who wins the Ghanaian election this weekend. The new poll projects increased rates of voting among the youth, who strongly favour Mahama. It also finds signs of apathy among those who previously voted NPP, some of whom now say they may not turn out to vote for the NPP’s Bawumia.
Among floating voters surveyed in this year’s campaigns’ final days, Mahama leads by 66% to 30% for Bawumia. His lead among floating voters has remained steady among registered floating voters in our independent researchers’ internal tracking polls throughout this election year. UPDI Africa’s final survey indicates that the remaining floating voters break slightly in favour of independent candidates and smaller parties. When both turnout and the likely decisions of floating voters are taken into account in UPDI Africa’s final estimate, Mahama maintains a 52% advantage to Bawumia’s 46%, with 2% again going to other candidates.
The survey by UPDI Africa, conducted nationally among registered voters show that since early November, Mahama has made gains among young voters aged between 18 and 40 years old, leading at 61% to Bawumia’s 36%.
Both candidates hold sizeable leads among their core voting groups, including gaining overwhelming endorsement among their own party supporters – 98% of NDC supporters are voting for Mahama, 89% of NPP supporters indicated they are voting for Bawumia.
Methodology
The researchers interviewed 2,889 likely voters through a cross-sectional and representative telephone survey. With this sample size, the researchers can say with 95% confidence that the results are considered accurate within a margin of error of 3 percentage points (+ or -), of what they would have been had the entire adult voter population in Ghana been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Ghanaian population, according to official figures from the EC and GSS.
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